The hotly-competed seed investments I’ve made have underperformed. Fundraising has very little to do with running a good company. It’s just very hard to pick well at the seed stage, and most companies don’t have hot seed rounds, so most successful companies don’t either.
In my experience, the “hot seed rounds” that everyone is fighting to get in are anti-correlated with very successful investments. The hotly-competed seed investments I’ve made have under-performed. The one major exception is Optimizely.
Sam Altman in Black Swan Seed Rounds
When miners mine bitcoin, they have to for the electricity in dollars. As the difficulty goes up and the price of bitcoin goes down, they have to sell a larger and larger percentage of what they mine (for electricity). It still makes sense to mine if you’re living in a dorm and don’t pay for electricity, or if you can’t pass a KYC check and are willing to pay a big premium for bitcoin.
Sam Altman in Bitcoin Price Pressure
I think most people have terrible intuition about investment risk/reward trade-offs. We seem hardwired to focus on downside risk. I think this is because it’s hard to conceptualize the difference between a 3x and a 300x (or 3000x) return.